Environmental Change & Migration
The Demographic Balancing Equation explains how the total population of a given area changes based on births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. Globally, the population grows when births exceed deaths and declines when deaths exceed births. In smaller geographic areas, population change also depends on migration: areas with high birth rates, low death rates, and high immigration grow quickly and can become overpopulated, while areas with low birth rates, high death rates, and high emigration decline and can face societal extinction (Carter, 2016; 178). Malthus explains the human population’s growing pattern by material interests. This growth is fueled by the desire for larger markets, increased labor for agriculture, and cheaper labor for industries, exacerbated by strong reproductive drives. Population growth tends to exceed food resources and leads to catastrophic consequences such as famine, disease, war, and high mortality, which are called positive checks (Carter, 2016; 19). Furthermore, Neo-Malthusian thinkers argue that population growth and overconsumption drive technological development, political change, environmental degradation, destruction of natural resource-based local economies, and poverty and offer solutions to overpopulation-related issues, and emphasize the need for economic and political interventions to substitute for the economic development boosted by population growth (Carter, 2016; 20).
Grasping the control of human populations started from the post-World War II political landscape which led the U.S. to shift from a traditionally isolationist stance to a peaceful and prosperous post-war era. This strategy encouraged the foundation of powerful transnational institutions to manage global political and economic affairs (Szreter, 1993; 665). As economic and social planning gained increased acceptability in the United States, this led behavioral and administrative social sciences earned credibility after the New Deal (Szreter, 1993; 664). Hence, today managing population size and flow is possible through measures implemented by either governmental or international institutions. Should the world experience overpopulation driven by material factors, leading to an eventual environmental catastrophe, the displacement of individuals affected by such environmental disasters will become a critical issue. This paper focuses on the globally managing migration driven by environmental factors and examines the responses of nations to these migrations. Additionally, it highlights how these migrations have led to new expressions of anti-immigrant sentiment.
A migrant is any person who is moving or has moved across an international border or within a state away from his/her habitual place of residence, regardless of the person’s legal status; whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary; what the causes for the movement are; or what the length of the stay is (IOM, 2019). Macro-level pull or push factors can influence geographic mobility. Environmental influences such as warmer climates, agricultural failures, hurricanes, droughts, and floods are some of the macro-level influences (Carter, 2016; 179). It is observed that the period between the mid-1980s, and 2008 witnessed the displacement of about 20 million people due to extreme weather conditions. It is predicted that desertification, agricultural droughts, and coastal floods may force hundreds of millions, if not a billion people, to relocate by 2050. Environmental experts primarily link these changes to the growing human population and the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels (Carter, 2016; 184). Hence, human migration is a significant aspect of debates about environmental conservation.
Ehrlich argued that the dramatic acceleration in global population growth was the root cause of various crises, including environmental degradation (Hoff, 2018; 1), which necessitates massive reductions in global population for human survival (Hoff, 2018; 3). In the contemporary context, the debate has shifted towards sustainable development and resource management. While Ehrlich’s prediction of an all-encompassing population crisis has not materialized to the extent he feared, concerns about sustainable development remain relevant; the global total fertility rate has declined, partly due to development and modernization – a process that we can attribute to the demographic transition theory (Hoff, 2018; 5). Hence, significant changes in how we live are necessary to ensure a sustainable future, focusing on improving economic and population policies, which are major drivers of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (Ripple et al., 2019; 10). Addressing climate change requires major transformations in global societal functions while respecting human diversity (Ripple et al., 2019, p. 11), which can be established through effective policies that lower fertility rates such as family planning services to improve human rights. Yet, it should be noted that merely reducing the population won’t resolve our ecological issues since the environmental impact is both a production of population, affluence, and technology, Hoff argues (Hoff, 2018; 6). Reducing wealth would subject millions of people to a life of perpetual poverty, which is impractical and unrealistic.
The change in climate and the way of experiencing it are unevenly distributed across the globe, with the countries most affected often not being the primary contributors to the crisis. This inequity raises questions about nation-state responsibilities and global cooperation in addressing climate change. For instance, even though at the international level, the UN Human Rights Committee declared that countries cannot deport individuals to regions where climate change-induced conditions threaten their right to life (OHCHR, 2020); The German government has expressed disagreement with this decision by arguing that the link between climate change and migration are not sufficient.
A report by the World Bank highlights different scenarios for future migration patterns under climate change (World Bank Group, 2018). The Pessimistic scenario consistently predicts the highest number of migrants across all regions, while The More Inclusive Development and More Climate-Friendly scenarios predict significantly lower numbers, with the More Climate-Friendly scenario being the most optimistic. This suggests that inclusive development and climate-friendly policies could substantially reduce the number of climate migrants. When the regional impact is examined, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to have the highest number of climate migrants under all scenarios, compared to South Asia and Latin America (World Bank Group, 2018).
It can be observed that concerns regarding the energy trilemma – climate change, energy reliability, and energy affordability – vary significantly across the global North. Portugal, Spain, and Germany exhibit high levels of concern about climate change, with over 50% of the Portuguese population very or extremely worried. Conversely, concern is low in Ireland, Israel, Eastern Europe (Lithuania, Estonia, Poland), and Russia, with less than 20% of their populations worried. (ESS, 2016). While concerns about the climate crisis and migration vary significantly across European countries, it is also possible to observe the formation of civil movements in this context. In line with these concerns, various civil society organizations and movements have emerged focusing on these issues by turning “environmental” activism into a way of expressing anti-immigrant sentiment.
Although the New Deal facilitated the professionalization of demography by focusing on technical aspects of population statistics and moving away from the racist and elitist eugenics agenda of the interwar period (Szreter, 1993; 664), I would argue that the rise of post-modern values during the Cold War, such as environmental activism, paved the way for another way of expressing anti-immigrant sentiment. Anti-immigrant sentiment is traditionally associated with right-wing perspectives. Increasingly, some left-wing organizations are adopting population control measures as a means of environmental protection. This shift includes advocating for the reduction of refugee intake as a strategy for population management. Today, both ends of the political spectrum can prioritize population control in the context of environmental sustainability. For instance, drawing on Ehrlich’s perspective, viewing population control as a means to achieve environmental conservation, Tanton left a legacy of anti-immigration (Tribou & Talley, 2021). His perspective fits the logic of preserving the “national” geography, which underestimates the environmental injustice at the global level and global governance institutions. Tanton founded the Sierra Club which brought the debate over whether to advocate for strict immigration restrictions as a means to control environmental damage linked to rapid population growth (Barringer, 2004; 1) Then he founded a hardline anti-immigrant group, the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) which initially collaborated with progressives but later adopted openly racist views, promoting eugenics and lamenting the erosion of the white majority in the U.S. (Tribou & Talley, 2021).
Environmental protectionism at the national level can also be observed among far-right groups. Lawrence demonstrates how terrorist attacks are motivated by similar causes such as concerns for the environment. The Malthusian ideas of overpopulation have influenced many eco-fascist views such as the nazi zealot Devi, and Pentti Linkola. Many contemporary eco-fascists share Linkola’s idea that violence is the best way to reduce population, rejecting the alt-right’s cultural strategy in favor of direct action and ideological purity. This strategy is motivated by extreme right-wing terrorism and a fear of approaching environmental catastrophe (Lawrence, 2019).
In conclusion, the theoretical perspectives provided by the Demographic Balancing Equation and Malthusian principles show how births, deaths, immigration, and emigration shape population changes, while Malthusian theory emphasizes the consequences of population growth outstripping food resources, leading to positive checks like famine and disease. Neo-Malthusian thinkers expand on this by linking population growth to environmental degradation and advocating for economic and political interventions to manage these effects. Building on this theoretical foundation, the paper examined both national and global perceptions of environmental change and its effects on migration. The national perceptions on environmental activism have sometimes intersected with anti-immigrant sentiment, demonstrating that both right-wing and left-wing groups can prioritize population control for environmental reasons.
References
Barringer, F. (2004, March 16). Bitter division for Sierra Club on Immigration. New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/16/us/bitter-division-for-sierra-club-on-immigration.html
Carter, G. L. (2016). Chapter 1: Overview of Population Study. In Population and Society: An Introduction (pp. 1–20). Cambridge, UK: Polity Press. [ISBN-13: 978–0745668383]
Carter, G. L. (2016). Chapter 2: World population growth and distribution. In Population and Society: An Introduction (pp. 21–40). Cambridge, UK: Polity Press. [ISBN-13: 978–0745668383]
ESS Data Portal. (2016). ESS round 8 – 2016. Welfare attitudes, attitudes to climate change. Retrieved from https://ess.sikt.no/en/study/f8e11f55-0c14-4ab3-abde-96d3f14d3c76
Hoff, D. (2018, July 10). The long fuse: ‘The Population Bomb’ is still ticking 50 years after its publication. The Conversation. Retrieved from http://theconversation.com/a-long-fuse-the-population-bomb-is-still-ticking-50-years-after-its-publication-96090
Lawrence, D. (2019, October 2). The regrowth of eco-fascism. Retrieved June 2, 2024, from HOPE website: https://hopenothate.org.uk/2019/10/02/the-regrowth-of-eco-fascism/
OHCHR. (2020, January 21). Historic UN human rights case opens door to climate change asylum claims. Retrieved from https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2020/01/historic-un-human-rights-case-opens-door-climate-change-asylum-claims?LangID=E&NewsID=25482
Szreter, S. (1993). The Idea of Demographic Transition and the Study of Fertility Change: A Critical Intellectual History. Population and Development Review, 19(4), 659–701.
Tribou, D., & Talley, L. (2021, January 29). Sealed papers of anti-immigration activist John Tanton at the center of a lawsuit against UM. Michigan Public. Retrieved June 2, 2024, from https://www.michiganpublic.org/news/2021-01-29/sealed-papers-of-anti-immigration-activist-john-tanton-at-the-center-of-lawsuit-against-um
